INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Future Scenarios for the Eurozone 15 Perspectives on the Euro Crisis SCENARIO TEAM EUROZONE 2020 March 2013 The Eurozone is standing at a crossroads, facing the biggest challenges in its history: the systemic crisis … The third scenario is a return to growth at any price, with unfettered catch-up consumption without any consideration for the environment. There is also a need to re-establish the previously high level of collective-bargaining coverage in the industry, underpinned by an industry-wide collective agreement extended by law to cover the entire sector. Finally, the relaxation of state-aid restrictions and the rescue of companies in distress will reconfigure what is considered possible and legitimate. The second and key factor is reduction of working time. In a scenario where the EU27 cannot agree to do more in many policy areas, it increasingly focuses on deepening certain key aspects of the single market. www.ecdpm.org Exploring scenarios for the future of ACP-EU Cooperation 7 Scenario 1: A revised Cotonou Partnership Agreement beyond 2020 1 What does this scenario entail? While it would obviously have a positive impact on conventional economic indicators (such as gross domestic product) and would reduce bankruptcies and unemployment in the short and medium term, it would have major long-term consequences. The second key element is the ‘scenario logic’ which constitutes the core of the process. It’s time to #Care4Care! The EU and Turkey face mounting challenges both in relation to one another and internationally. National borders As regards the free movement of people, the closing once more of national borders has been a highly symbolic trend, demonstrating that ‘other’ Europeans are still considered as potentially dangerous, disease-carrying foreigners. The strategy of collective actors will therefore play a key role—with consequences for the way the architectural pillars of the EU are transformed. But in which global environment is this set to happen? The Future of EU-Turkey Relations: Mapping Dynamics and Testing Scenarios. “Those who want more do more”. In full complementarity with NATO, a European Defence Union is created. In a scenario where the EU27 sticks to its course, it focuses on implementing and upgrading its current reform agenda. Defence and security are prioritised. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Thank you very much for your interest! Digital transformation will bring comprehensive changes for companies. There are different ways of financing budget deficits and state debts, which are bound to explode. Priorities are regularly updated, problems are tackled as they arise and new legislation is rolled out accordingly. Robust and consistent EU response: This scenario is set against major events experienced in the EU over recent years, such as the Great Recession, the refugee crisis, Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Now please check your email to confirm your subscription. Whether we resort to ‘helicopter’ money or ‘coronabonds’ or stick to the European Stability Mechanism—how the recovery is financed and what type of recovery it is—will greatly affect the future. Filed Under: Economy Tagged With: coronavirus. They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. I… 4 FUTURE OF EUROPE SCENARIOS 2016 /2025. They therefore serve not merely as a … The coronavirus crisis and the welfare state. True, it’s difficult to see austerity being applied to the public sector in one or two years’ time. All news & events. This poses very delicate questions. 2. the drivers of europe’s future 3. five scenarios for europe by 2025 scenario 1: carrying on scenario 2: nothing but the single market scenario 3: those who want more do more scenario 4: doing less more efficiently scenario 5: doing much more together 4. the way ahead 5. annexes the white paper process the five scenarios: policy overview 3 6 8 15 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. Four scenarios, widely varying in their social and ecological consequences, are possible. This proves easier for the free movement of capital and of goods, which continues tariff-free, than it does in other areas. Our future scenarios for 2040 www.inherit.eu 12. 'This book correctly emphasises the need to place the future of social rights in Europe front and centre in the post-Brexit debate, to move on from the economistic bias that has obscured our vision of a progressive social Europe.' Despite all the clapping from the balconies, care workers continue to work in precarious and vulnerable conditions. Four future scenarios for the EU in 2030. EU states will have until the end of the year to decide on the future vision of a European Union following a European Commission proposal outlining five broad scenarios. There is far greater and quicker decision-making at EU level. The study ‘The future evolution of civil society in the European Union by 2030’, commissioned by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) in the framework of the annual study programme for 2017, is in the process of being finalised. In the European Union, the very foundations of European integration are being questioned. The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union. Future scenarios as a tool to understand the future of Europe and discover common ground. These developments have triggered political instability and fuelled … Seen this way, the third scenario could greatly resemble the first. Indispensable reading!". Michael D Higgins, president of Ireland. Over the course of 2020, repeated outbreaks of Covid-19 in a number of large German meat-processing plants led to renewed public concern about the longstanding labour abuses in this industry. Based on research about demographics, health, social inequalities and the environment, INHERIT presents four positive scenarios of what Europe could look like in 2040. This scenario goes hand-in-hand with global fragmentation and a more or less radical ‘deglobalisation’. On the one hand, the geopolitical and global growth context in which we will progress, and on the other, the ability of European society to move towards new, more sustainable models at a technological, environmental, social and productive level. We suggest here one possible approach that we could define as a ‘walk through the process’ divided in six steps with two important elements. This helps to close the gap between promise and delivery, even if expectations remain unmet in certain domains. The European Union allows willing member states to do more together in specific areas. Decision-making may be simpler to understand but the capacity to act collectively is limited. “Nothing but the single market”. The Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), together with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), has been intensively working since 2019 to monitor the EU gender equality policy agenda through a progressive lens focusing particularly on its care dimensions. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and can be combined and developed in parallel in different regions of the world, depending on the relevant balance of power. The European Union Focuses on delivering its positive reform agenda. Philippe Pochet is general director of the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI). Living longer, more productive lives; Smaller, educated workforce; Labour force and population ageing ; Immigration and population ageing; Impact of intra-EU mobility; Impact of brain drain; Girls' education and population growth; Launch event; The report The European Union Focuses on delivering more and faster in selected policy areas, while doing less elsewhere. These three pillars are being shaken by the pandemic and they are sure to be at the centre of debates on the future of Europe. The second scenario is the Chinese path, under which we move towards a more authoritarian state monitoring a country’s population via new means based on artificial intelligence, with restrictions put on sometimes quite fundamental freedoms in exchange for a feeling of protection (purportedly of the country’s territory). As a result, the EU27 is able to act much quicker and more decisively in its chosen priority areas. The five scenarios presented in the White Paper aims to steer a debate on the future of Europe. This includes a strong common research and industrial base, joint procurement, more integrated capabilities and enhanced military readiness for joint missions abroad. The Future Migration Scenarios for Europe project is working together with other Horizon 2020 projects, such as the QuantMig Project, the Hummingbird Project, and the CrossMigration Project, to explore and communicate about core migration issues in Europe and beyond. This scenario is unlikely this time but not to be ruled out. However, there is the risk of alienating parts of society which feel that the EU lacks legitimacy or has taken too much power away from national authorities. It might only take a little to switch from one to another. As for the EU’s external borders, the example of China suggests strict ‘cocooning’ of the national territory vis-à-vis the outside world, having overcome the internal health crisis, is set to be the norm. Citizens have more rights derived directly from EU law. This scenario calls for negotiating a follow-up agreement that would adapt the existing ACP-EU framework Future 2040 Scenarios. When and under what conditions (health, economic, political) will a reopening be considered—without engendering too much risk? New legislation providing for enhanced inspection on health and safety, together with a ban on contract work and limitations on the use of temporary agency employees, holds out the prospect of a profound change in employment practices and labour relations in the meat industry. As you may know, Social Europe is an independent publisher. Three scenarios are outlined for Europe and its international role in 2030. 2018-01-19 12:00. These three pillars are being shaken by the pandemic and they are sure to be at the centre of debates on the future of Europe. Read the White Paper on the Future of Europe. Collapse scenario Yet, might the UK's withdrawal be a blessing in disguise? Citizens’ rights derived from EU law start to vary depending on whether or not they live in a country that has chosen to do more. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law may become restricted over time. It develops new rules and enforcement tools to deepen the single market in key new areas. We aren't backed by a large publishing house or big advertising partners. They are not detailed blueprints or policy prescriptions. It constitutes a dividing line between the neoliberal restoration and this recovery-at-all-costs scenario and comprises a strategic tipping-point. In this document, the European Commission (2017) outlined five tentative scenarios for the EU, varying from broad to narrow institutional and political integration, as listed below: “Carrying on”.